Utah's Water Resources: Planning for the Future
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Chapter 3

POPULATION AND WATER USE TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS

The 21st Century:
A Promising Era of Growth and Prosperity
Utah enters the 21st century with bright prospects for continued prosperity and a high standard of living. Liveable communities, education and employment opportunities, a pleasant climate, beautiful scenery, and a broad range of recreational opportunities will encourage our children to stay and others to move to the state. As a result, Utah's population growth is expected to continue well into the foreseeable future.

   
    ood employment opportunities, a pleasant climate, beautiful scenery and a broad range of other opportunities will continue to drive growth and prosperity in Utah.   Next Pull-Quote  
   
With such growth comes an abundance of issues and challenges. How infrastructure will be planned and resources managed are important issues that will need to be effectively resolved. One certainty is that additional water will be required for municipal and industrial (M&I) purposes. This water will be made available through conservation, agricultural conversion, management strategies and water development.

Economic/ Employment Trends and Projections

Employment opportunities directly influence population growth. Utah's population and economic growth rates are projected to continue to out-pace most of the nation through the year 2020. An increasingly diversified economy will help sustain economic growth. In 1994, the total number of people employed in Utah reached one million. Total employment is expected to double to about two million by the year 2020. Agricultural employment is the only sector expected to decrease. Metal mining and refining as well as military employment are expected to remain relatively constant. Other employment sectors will grow at varying rates. These trends apply throughout the state, with total employment for each county expected to rise.

Population Trends and Projections

Since Mormon settlers first began arriving in the Salt Lake Valley in 1847 until now, the state's population has grown steadily. With exception of the Great Depression and the recession of the late 1980s, this growth has occurred at a rate at least 1 percent every year, with an annual average of nearly 4 percent. In 2000, Utah's population was about 2.2 million. By 2020, the population is expected to increase to 3.2 million, and by 2050 it could more than double to about 5.0 million (see Figure 7). The 2000 Census ranks states by growth rate. The five fastest growing states in the nation are all located in the West; these are: (1) Nevada, (2) Arizona, (3) Colorado, (4) Utah and (5) Idaho. The only state bordering Utah not in the top five is Wyoming (32). Utah's growth has historically been high due to its rapid natural increase–the result of the nation's highest fertility rate and the nation's third highest life expectancy.1 In the 1990s, this rapid natural increase combined with good economic conditions to increase Utah's growth.

Figure 7, Population Trend and Projection
Over the years, the rate of migration into and out of Utah has varied. In the mid-1980s, when California and national economies improved relative to Utah's, there was a net out-migration and the state's annual growth rate declined to about 0.7 percent. In the late-1980s, the state's economy started to recover, and job growth rates in Utah exceeded those in California and the nation resulting in a net in-migration to the state.

Utah's population is distributed as shown in Figure 8. Most of the population currently lives in the area along and around the Wasatch Front. This area, known as the Greater Wasatch Area, extends roughly 50 miles north and 70 miles south of Salt Lake City (Brigham City to Nephi) and extends approximately 30 miles west and 30 miles east ( Tooele to Park City). About 82 percent of Utah's population is located in the Greater Wasatch Area and other urban areas of the state. This ranks Utah as the sixth most ur banized state in the nation, behind other western states such as California, Nevada and Arizona.2

Greater Wasatch Area

The majority of Utah's future growth is projected to occur in the Greater Wasatch Area. Through extensive research and involvement of the public, the Quality Growth Efficiency Tools (QGET) Technical Committee and Envision Utah have gathered information about what residents of this area value and how they think growth should be accommodated.3 Based on this information, several issues were identified that need to be addressed in order to protect the environment and maintain economic vitality and quality of life. Improving air quality, increasing transportation options, and conserving and maintaining availability of water resources are some of the issues.

To address this and the other issues, Envision Utah developed specific quality growth strategies that seek to bring about change through means other than regulatory authority. Several of the strategies that influence water use include:4

  • promoting walkable development (encouraging new and existing developments to include a mix of uses with a pedestrian-friendly design);
  • fostering transit-oriented development (housing and commercial development that incorporates and encourages various forms of transportation);
  • preserving open spaces by including open areas in new development and providing incentives to reuse currently developed land; and
  • restructuring water bills to encourage water conservation.
If future growth follows these strategies, the potential for water savings will be significant. A trend away from dispersed development toward more concentrated population centers would result in reduced lot sizes and lower per capita water use. By 2020, Envision Utah estimates that average lot sizes would decline from 0.32 acres to 0.29 acres and per capita water use would decline about 6 percent in the Greater Wasatch Area under the quality growth strategy.5

Rural Areas

In rural areas, there are numerous communities ranging from just a few homes to populations of several thousands. Some of these communities are growing rapidly, others very slowly, and a few are declining. Some are actively trying to attract businesses that would provide jobs and help their economies. If successful, these communities could grow more rapidly than anticipated.

Many rural areas in Utah share some of the same concerns that QGET and Envision Utah have identified for the Greater Wasatch Area. These and other areas will benefit from the insights and strategies provided by this cooperative venture to ensure quality growth in Utah. In addition to this effort, the Governor's Rural Partnership Office, in cooperation with local groups, has created a program specifically designed to assist rural communities with their unique growth related challenges. The goal of this program, entitled " 21st Century Communities," is to provide planners and leaders in rural communities with the training, guidance and tools that will help them succeed in their planning efforts.

Water and Limitations on Growth

In most areas, water will not be a limiting factor of population growth. This does not mean that each community presently has ample water for its needs or the system capacity to deliver it. Rather, it means that in most places water could be made available if the necessary water transfers, agreements and infrastructure were in place.

CHAPTER 3 - POPULATION AND WATER USE TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
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